Supply is low????
4.6 Months might not be much but back in late January 2021 it was 1.6 Months. How rates affect home buying and lending cannot be underestimated. The median home sale price was $346,875, up 0.8% year over year but down 10.8% from the peak. Price never lies. Within a month or two we will be talking about YoY price drops and stopping pumping the normalization narrative.
Median sale prices fell in 19 of the 50 most populous U.S. metros, with the biggest drops in:
– San Francisco (-7.8% YoY)
– Oakland, CA (-7.5%),
– Detroit (-5.7%),
– Austin (-4.6%)
– Phoenix (-4.3%)
A handful of markets did go went (always have outliers) in:
– Cincinnati (20.3%)
– West Palm Beach, FL (12.6%)
– Milwaukee (9.4%)
– Indianapolis (8.4%)
– Fort Lauderdale, FL (8.3%)
– Montgomery County, PA (7.8%)
Pending home sales were down 22.6% year over year, the smallest decline in over four months. Pending sales rose in one market, Cincinnati (20.3%), and fell the most in:
– Las Vegas (-61.6% YoY)
– Phoenix (-54.1%)
– San Jose (-51.2%)
– Jacksonville, FL (-50.2%)
– Nashville, TN (-50%)
So sales are falling while new listings fell 16.7% year over year, the smallest decline since September 2022. So Sales are falling faster and new listings are falling slower hence we get more inventory during the winter months (seasonal lows).
